Van market expected to rebalance in 2015

Monday, January 5, 2015 - 15:00
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Shortage of vans entering the market has driven strong prices at auction

Analysis from Manheim suggests that the UK’s used van market is well on the way to shaking off the effects of the recession.

According to the UK’s leading wholesale commercial vehicle remarketing business, the industry is still seeing a high proportion of older vans at auction, but this pattern will be less evident during 2015.

While data from the SMMT confirms that new van sales will have risen to approximately 316,000 in 2014 (from a low of 186,000 in 2009), natural market equilibrium between age categories of vans has still not yet been achieved, according to the UK’s biggest seller of used commercial vehicles.

James Davis, head of commercial vehicles at Manheim, explains: “Manheim believes that this chronic shortage of vans entering the market has driven the remarkably strong prices seen at auction. When looking back at the shape of the industry in 2008, before the recession hit, the wholesale van market was stable in terms of age and mileage profile.

“Today’s marketplace, in comparison, is almost unrecognisable. Despite selling an all-time record proportion of older vans, average prices have continued to rise. Since 2006 average van values have increased just over £1,400, or 45%, despite being nine months older and having travelled 12,000 more miles. Considering more recent times, October’s year on year average van value in auction has risen by £659, or 15%, to £4,909.”

Manheim’s recent analysis has shed a new light on the size of the issue, as when mapping each year’s annual total new van registrations it became clear to see where the impact of registration shortfalls would be felt. For example in 2009 the 186,000 new vans registered that year become 1 to 2 year old vans in 2010, then 2 to 3 year old vans in 2011, 3 to 4 vans in 2012 and so on. That’s not to say they will be sold, but that each year’s new van volume is effectively tracking through by age banding, adding to the overall UK van parc of 3.7 million vehicles.

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