UK diesel prices approach £2 a litre as global supply crisis deepens
UK diesel prices are closing in on their previous all-time high as a combination of disrupted global supplies, refinery outages and geopolitical tensions sends wholesale fuel costs sharply higher.
The latest figures supplied to FleetPoint put the UK diesel average at around 198.5p per litre, up 15.3p in a month, with some forecourts already charging more than £2.15. RAC data published on 23 September put the national average at 197.31p per litre, just 1.78p below the record 199.09p set on 25 June 2022.
The figures underline the pressure facing fleets, hauliers and businesses that remain heavily dependent on diesel. A return to prices above £2 a litre now appears increasingly likely if current pressures on global diesel supplies persist.
Reuters reports that the global diesel market is facing a prolonged shortage, with conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine disrupting supplies from major producing regions. European diesel futures have more than doubled from the start of 2026, while global refinery capacity is operating at or near full utilisation, limiting the scope for a rapid increase in production.
Global diesel supply under pressure
The current diesel price shock is being driven by a combination of factors rather than a single disruption.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have removed significant refining capacity, while Russia has responded with restrictions on diesel exports. At the same time, the conflict involving Iran has disrupted Middle Eastern energy flows and shipping routes, with diesel exports from the region falling sharply.
Reuters estimates that Middle Eastern diesel shipments more than halved between March and August compared with the same period last year. Russia’s export restrictions and reduced Chinese exports have added further pressure to an already tight market.
The result is a global market in which refiners are running hard but are struggling to rebuild inventories. US diesel stocks are also under significant pressure, despite American refineries operating at high utilisation rates. Reuters reports that US inventories remain well below the five-year seasonal average, while US diesel prices have risen above $6 a gallon.
This has raised concerns about whether the US could restrict diesel exports in an attempt to protect domestic supplies. Such a move would be significant for the UK because of its reliance on imported diesel.
UK particularly exposed to diesel supply shocks
Howard Cox, Founder of FairFuelUK, said: “The UK is dangerously exposed on diesel. We import the vast majority of what we use, and almost 70 percent of it comes from just three places — the US, the Netherlands and Belgium. When those supply routes tighten, British drivers get hammered overnight. No other major economy is this dependent, this vulnerable, or this quick to pass global shocks straight to the pumps.”
The UK’s exposure means international developments can quickly feed through into forecourt prices. For fleet operators, the impact is particularly significant because diesel remains a major fuel source for vans, trucks and other commercial vehicles.
Cox added: “This is a structural weakness the Government refuses to acknowledge. Every geopolitical flare-up becomes a price spike for UK motorists. FairFuelUK is calling for urgent action: transparency, domestic resilience, and a fuel pricing system that doesn’t leave drivers paying for every global crisis.”
The RAC is also warning that the £2-a-litre threshold is now within touching distance.
RAC head of policy Simon Williams said: “The price of diesel continues to move steadily towards a new all-time high. A litre now averages 197.31p across the country, meaning it’s just under 2p (1.78p) from surpassing the 199.09p record set on 25 June 2022, although we’re aware of many forecourts already charging in excess of this.
“With concerns over the global supply of wholesale diesel, the question facing drivers is no longer ‘when will the average price exceed 199.09p?’ but ‘how far above £2 a litre will it climb?’. Only a sudden and sustained drop in the cost of oil can prevent an average diesel pump price of over £2 a litre happening, which sadly appears highly unlikely.
“Filling up a 55-litre family car with diesel costs £30 more than it did at the start of the US/Iran war at £108.52. Petrol has also hit a new Iran War high by tipping over 173p (173.08p), although it’s fortunately a long way away from the record high of 191.54p from early July 2022. A petrol fill-up costs £95 – £22 more than it did prior to the conflict.”
RAC figures show diesel had risen by 54.9p per litre between 28 February and 23 September, an increase of 38.6%. Petrol rose by 40.3p over the same period.
Diesel costs threaten fleet operating budgets
For businesses operating commercial vehicles, the consequences extend well beyond the cost of filling a tank.
Higher diesel prices increase the cost of every delivery, service visit and journey, placing additional pressure on already tight operating margins. Hauliers face particularly acute exposure because fuel is one of the largest variable costs associated with running an HGV fleet.
The latest market developments also create uncertainty for fleet managers trying to forecast fuel expenditure. While crude oil prices remain a major influence, diesel supply and refining margins can cause pump prices to move disproportionately when refined product markets become tight.
Petrol also rises as oil remains volatile
Petrol prices have also risen, although the increase has been less dramatic than the movement in diesel.
The latest figures put the UK petrol average at around 173p per litre, with the RAC recording 173.08p on 23 September. That remains below the 191.54p petrol record set in July 2022.
Meanwhile, Brent crude has remained highly volatile as traders assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and the possibility of changes to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
On 25 September, Brent was trading around $106 a barrel, after rising sharply earlier in the week. Reports of potential US-Iran discussions over reopening the Strait of Hormuz have provided some relief, but renewed attacks in the region have continued to generate supply concerns.
The wider oil market therefore remains highly sensitive to developments in the conflict, making it difficult for fleet operators to predict where fuel prices will settle.
FairFuelUK calls for Government action
FairFuelUK is now mobilising supporters over the rising cost of fuel. The organisation says thousands of supporters will email their MPs in the coming week, calling for action to support motorists and businesses.
The campaign is calling for a cut in fuel duty, measures to prevent profiteering at the pumps and a more transparent pricing system designed to reduce the impact of global fuel shocks on UK motorists.
FairFuelUK is also calling for greater oversight of wholesale-to-retail pricing, a UK diesel resilience strategy with more diversified import routes, a fairer fuel duty system and emergency monitoring of US diesel export policy.
Cox sums up: “The UK is now at the frontline of a global diesel crisis. With diesel already touching £2/litre and credible forecasts pointing toward £2.30, urgent government intervention is essential to protect households, hauliers, farmers, and the wider economy. FairFuelUK supporters will make that message impossible for MPs to ignore.”
For fleet operators, the immediate challenge is therefore not simply whether diesel will break its previous record, but how long elevated prices could persist. Reuters reports that analysts expect the global diesel shortage to extend into 2027, although additional exports from countries including China and changes in geopolitical conditions could provide some relief.
With inventories tight and refinery capacity already heavily utilised, the outlook leaves diesel-dependent fleets facing continued uncertainty over one of their most important operating costs.
