The Government is preparing to consult on changes to the UK’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate, with reports suggesting ministers are considering a substantial reduction in the proportion of new cars that must be fully electric by 2030.
According to reports in The Times and Sunday Times, the Department for Transport (DfT) is expected to launch a consultation examining both the ZEV Mandate and the future role of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). One option under consideration could reduce the 2030 pure-electric sales requirement from 80% to as little as 50%, while giving manufacturers greater flexibility to meet their obligations.
The Government has not yet confirmed any change to the headline targets. A government spokeswoman told The Times: “We are committed to the 2030 phase out date for new petrol and diesel cars. We’ve always said we’ll review the mandate to support British industry and investment. Further details will be published in due course.”
The reported proposals therefore appear to be about changing the route to the 2030 deadline rather than abandoning the deadline itself. Under the existing framework, manufacturers must achieve a 33% ZEV share for cars in 2026, rising to 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029 and 80% in 2030.
Why is the Government considering changes?
The Government’s review comes against a backdrop of continuing debate about consumer demand for electric cars, manufacturer compliance costs and the practicalities of charging.
The latest figures show that the transition is accelerating, although the overall market remains below the headline 2026 ZEV Mandate target. According to figures reported from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), 43,106 battery electric cars were registered in July, giving BEVs a 27.5% share of the market. BEV registrations were up by almost half year-on-year. At the same time, 23,359 PHEVs were registered, representing 14.9% of the market.
SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes has argued that manufacturers are already making substantial investments in zero-emission mobility but are facing significant costs in supporting demand. He said July’s progress could not be sustained if manufacturers continued “haemorrhaging billions in EV discounts” to avoid even steeper penalties, warning that Britain risks undermining its competitiveness without regulatory reform.
However, the industry’s argument that demand is insufficient has been challenged by EV advocates, particularly because BEV registrations have continued to grow strongly and have recently moved closer to the mandated trajectory.
The key distinction is that the ZEV Mandate is a manufacturer-level regulatory system, rather than simply a national sales quota. Manufacturers already have access to a range of flexibilities, including banking, borrowing, trading, pooling and credits, while compliance payments apply if obligations cannot be met through the available mechanisms. The current compliance payment for cars is £12,000 per missed ZEV allowance from 2025 onwards.
The Government also expanded those flexibilities in 2025, including extending borrowing and allowing greater transfer mechanisms between cars and vans. It simultaneously introduced a flexibility allowing PHEVs to retain their previous CO2 value for certain compliance purposes.
Consequently, any further relaxation would go beyond simply fine-tuning the existing system and could represent a significant change to the trajectory originally established for the market.
PHEVs move to the centre of the debate
Plug-in hybrids appear likely to be a particularly important part of the forthcoming consultation.
The immediate concern is that PHEVs do not necessarily deliver their advertised emissions performance in real-world use. DfT research published in April found that 21% of PHEV drivers had no means of charging at home, compared with 12% in 2024, while 46% had access to a dedicated home charger.
That matters because a PHEV is designed to deliver its greatest efficiency when it is regularly charged and driven using its electric motor. Without regular charging, drivers can end up carrying the additional weight and complexity of the electric powertrain while relying heavily on the combustion engine.
European Commission research provides particularly striking evidence. Analysis of data from hundreds of thousands of vehicles found that real-world CO2 emissions from PHEVs were, on average, 3.5 times higher than their official type-approval figures. The Commission attributed much of the discrepancy to vehicles not being charged and driven electrically as frequently as assumed in laboratory testing.
This creates a dilemma for policymakers. PHEVs can provide a useful transition technology for motorists who are not yet ready to move to a BEV, but their environmental benefits depend heavily on driver behaviour and access to convenient charging.
Industry reaction: certainty is crucial
Reports of a potential relaxation have been met with concern from parts of the charging and EV industry, which argues that changing the policy trajectory risks undermining investment just as the charging network is expanding.
Delvin Lane, CEO of InstaVolt, said: “Ultra-rapid charging investment doesn’t happen on the back of uncertainty. We’ve invested hundreds of millions of pounds into the UK’s charging network because government policy gave us a clear runway to plan against. Softening the mandate at this stage risks spooking exactly the private capital that’s been building the infrastructure this transition depends on.
“Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of drivers are choosing to go electric. The numbers back this up: BEVs made up 27% of new car registrations in July, up 49% year-on-year, and staying above the ZEV Mandate trajectory for a second month running. OEMs need to recognise that this demand is real and seize it, or risk watching competitors take the opportunity they’re hesitating over.”
Tanya Sinclair, CEO of Electric Vehicles UK, was equally critical of arguments that the mandate itself is responsible for weak demand.
“The ZEV mandate isn’t the problem. The problem is many of those responsible for delivering it are spending more time complaining about demand than creating it,” she said.
“Car manufacturers are among the biggest and most sophisticated marketers in the world. Claims that demand simply isn’t there ring hollow. They know better than most that demand doesn’t just appear. It is built.
“The Mandate isn’t too ambitious. It is deliberately flexible. Nor are EV sales falling short of requirements.
“If everyone involved spent half as much time building consumer demand – as we do at EVUK – as they do arguing over percentages, we would be much closer to a fully electric future.”
Gurjeet Grewal, CEO of Octopus Electric Vehicles, said the mandate was providing certainty for manufacturers, investors and motorists.
“The ZEV mandate is working. It’s giving manufacturers the confidence to invest and drivers the confidence to switch. We’ve seen strong global investment in the UK because manufacturers see a market with clear policy direction. Weakening the mandate now would send exactly the wrong signal to businesses looking to create jobs and invest here.
“EVs are increasingly the best-value cars on the road and sales continue to grow at a remarkable pace. The last thing we need is another policy wobble that confuses consumers and puts investors off just as the transition is accelerating.”
Andy Palmer, Chair of EVUK, believes PHEVs can have a role, but only as a transitional technology.
“Plug-in hybrids are transition technology. The destination remains BEV, with efficient REEVs playing a useful role along the way,” he said.
“The key is plugging into cheap-rate electricity wherever possible – overnight at home, at work or on the street. That means getting the infrastructure right, and educating the consumer at the point of sale.
“And if hybrids are still needed beyond 2035, they should be efficient REEVs, designed to run primarily on electricity rather than petrol cars carrying a token battery.”
Voltempo CEO Simon Smith also stressed that the problem is not simply the availability of technology.
“Plug-in hybrids only work if people plug them in. That means convenient, affordable charging where cars actually park – but infrastructure alone isn’t enough. We also need proper driver education so people understand when, where and how to charge to get the best from the technology. If PHEVs are part of the transition, we need to make sure they’re being used as intended.”
The British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association (BVRLA) has similarly highlighted the importance of educating motorists. Chief executive Toby Poston said: “The transition to cleaner, greener vehicles relies on people being informed. Dealers need to understand the technology so they can help their customers buy with confidence. The BVRLA is training dealers to give them that knowledge to pass on. Plug-in hybrids can deliver real fuel and emissions savings, but the technology only works as intended if drivers understand how to use it. For people to switch to hybrids and full electric vehicles, education is essential.”
BEAMA warns of carbon and investment risks
BEAMA Director of External Affairs Kelly Butler has warned that weakening the mandate could have consequences extending beyond the automotive sector.
“Presenting weaker EV targets as good news for household finances simply doesn’t add up. The government’s own figures show that in many cases an EV is already cheaper to run than a petrol or diesel car, saving drivers up to £1,400 a year. If policymakers want to reduce the cost of living on a long-term basis, they should focus on addressing the cost imbalance between electricity and fossil fuels, and providing more flexible tariffs.
“Weakening the ZEV mandate comes with a significant carbon cost. Our analysis suggests that if the 2030 ZEV target is lowered from 80% to 50% and the reduction in EV sales is made up by petrol and diesel cars, those additional vehicles could generate almost 19 million tonnes of carbon emissions over their lifetimes. That’s equivalent to around two months of emissions from the UK’s entire domestic transport sector.
“Investment in the UK risks becoming another casualty of this policy flip flop. Manufacturers have made long-term commitments on the basis of the transition Government asked them to deliver. Those decisions cannot simply be switched on and off when targets change.
“Changing the mandate will damage confidence in the UK. If Government wants industry to keep backing electrification, it needs to show businesses that the policy direction will hold.”
Finally, more than 40 representatives from the charging sector, business fleets, battery manufacturing, and investors have joined with environmental organisations in support of the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate.
The groups warned in a public letter to Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander that changing the rules “potentially undermines billions of pounds of committed investment in the automotive sector, chargepoint sector, business fleets and battery manufacturing and recycling” and would prevent more families from accessing the savings EVs can provide.
What happens next?
The reported DfT consultation is expected to examine how the ZEV Mandate operates, the level of the future targets and the role of PHEVs and other hybrid technologies. The Government has yet to confirm precisely which options will be included.
The consultation will be particularly significant because the existing system was deliberately designed with substantial flexibility. Government documents describe the purpose of those mechanisms as providing manufacturers with different routes towards compliance while maintaining the headline trajectory towards zero-emission vehicles.
Any move towards a 50% 2030 ZEV target would therefore mark a fundamental change rather than a minor technical adjustment. It would also raise questions about the future shape of the UK new-car market between 2030 and 2035, when hybrids are currently expected to remain permissible even though new pure petrol and diesel cars are due to be phased out.
For fleets, leasing companies, manufacturers, charging operators and infrastructure investors, the central issue will be certainty. The UK is already investing heavily in charging infrastructure, while manufacturers are reshaping model ranges and supply chains around electrification. At the same time, July’s registration figures demonstrate that consumer demand for BEVs is continuing to grow.
The forthcoming consultation will therefore need to balance three competing pressures: the industry’s demand for a more achievable regulatory framework, the need to maintain investment confidence and the Government’s longer-term decarbonisation objectives.
Whatever the final decision, the debate over the ZEV Mandate is unlikely to be settled by changing a percentage alone. The experience of PHEVs demonstrates that the effectiveness of any vehicle technology depends on infrastructure, economics, consumer understanding and how vehicles are actually used.
For the UK automotive industry, the consultation could consequently prove to be one of the most important reviews of electric vehicle policy since the ZEV Mandate was introduced in 2024.
Mark Salisbury, Editor in Chief, Fleetpoint
