It has been reported that the Government is considering relaxing the UK’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate following growing pressure from manufacturers, unions and parts of the automotive sector. According to reports in The Sunday Times, ministers are examining changes that could reduce the proportion of battery electric vehicles required under the mandate by the end of the decade while maintaining the 2030 phase-out of new petrol and diesel-only cars. Recent reports suggest ministers are considering lowering the 2030 requirement for pure electric vehicle sales from 80% to around 50%, with hybrids accounting for a larger share of the market.
The debate has exposed a growing divide within the industry. While some manufacturers and trade bodies argue that current targets no longer reflect market realities, others warn that weakening the mandate risks undermining billions of pounds of investment already committed to electric vehicles and charging infrastructure.
The ZEV Mandate was introduced in January 2024 as a central pillar of the UK’s road transport decarbonisation strategy. It requires vehicle manufacturers to sell an increasing proportion of zero-emission vehicles each year, backed by a system of credits, trading mechanisms and financial penalties for non-compliance.
Under the current framework, the proportion of new car sales that must be zero emission rises from 22% in 2024 to 28% in 2025, 33% in 2026, 52% in 2028 and 80% by 2030. For vans, the target starts at 10% in 2024 and rises to 70% by 2030. The mandate ultimately requires 100% of new car and van sales to be zero emission by 2035.
The policy includes flexibilities allowing manufacturers to borrow credits from future years, trade credits with other manufacturers and use lower-emission vehicles to offset some obligations. These measures were designed to help industry manage the transition while maintaining the overall trajectory towards net zero.
The automotive industry argues that the assumptions underpinning the mandate have changed significantly since it was designed. Higher energy costs, inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainty and slower-than-expected consumer adoption have all affected the market. Recent SMMT forecasts suggest battery electric vehicles will account for around 26.8% of the market in 2026, below the mandated trajectory.
Mike Hawes, Chief Executive of the SMMT, has become one of the most prominent advocates for a review. “It’s clear that the assumptions underpinning the mandate no longer hold. It was designed for a market with stronger demand, greater stability and cheaper energy – not the market we have today. An urgent review of the ZEV Mandate is therefore essential. This is not about weakening ambition, but restoring credibility. Regulation must reflect real-world conditions.
“The prize remains significant: secure global leadership, unlock investment, sustain high-value jobs and decarbonise road transport. But success requires a realistic pathway – where policy, provision, infrastructure and demand move in lock step.”
The SMMT has consistently argued that manufacturers remain committed to decarbonisation but that targets must be aligned with actual market conditions and consumer demand. Hawes recently stated that the mandate was designed in a “very different place” economically and geopolitically than the one facing manufacturers today.
Image: SMMT
Policy Coherence Emerges as the Central Issue
While views differ on whether targets should be relaxed, there is striking agreement across the sector on one issue: policy coherence.
Jon Lawes, Managing Director at Novuna Vehicle Solutions, believes that changing targets alone will not address the underlying barriers to adoption. “A review of the ZEV mandate that reflects market realities is sensible, but simply watering down the targets won’t solve the underlying problem. The biggest barrier has never been a lack of ambition – it’s been policy uncertainty.
“EV demand remains highly sensitive to affordability and wider pressure on household budgets, which is why fleet buyers and salary sacrifice schemes continue to do much of the heavy lifting. If EV targets are to remain credible, they must be backed by reliable charging infrastructure, long-term policy certainty and measures that make switching affordable for more drivers.”
That sentiment is echoed by Tom Middleditch, Sustainability Spokesperson at Europcar Mobility Group UK. “If the Government wants a slower, steadier path, we understand that. But it has to be a coherent one. Easing pressure on manufacturers while simultaneously making it more expensive and less convenient for ordinary drivers to go electric isn’t a balanced transition, it’s a contradiction.
“The constant chopping and changing of policy isn’t just bad for EV demand, it creates uncertainty which is bad for business and economic growth.”
The concern centres on what many see as conflicting signals from government. While encouraging EV adoption, ministers have also introduced Vehicle Excise Duty for electric vehicles and maintained a higher VAT rate on public charging compared with home charging. Industry groups argue that such measures risk discouraging consumers at precisely the moment demand needs to accelerate.
Investors Want Stability, Not Surprises
Perhaps the strongest opposition to weakening the mandate comes from companies that have already invested heavily in the transition.
Guy Bartlett, Chief Executive of charge point operator Believ, warned that infrastructure investment depends on regulatory certainty. “Believ has committed over £300m of private investment to build EV charging infrastructure ahead of demand, helping support the 35-40% of UK households without access to a driveway as they make the transition to EVs.
“That investment was made on the strength of the ZEV Mandate.
“We support the government’s 2030 ambition, but ambition must now be backed by consistency. The UK still has the opportunity to lead, but only if policy gives the market the confidence to keep investing at pace.”
Matt Adams, Head of Electrical Transport Systems at BEAMA, expressed similar concerns. “At a time when the UK should be attracting capital into EV manufacturing and charging infrastructure, mixed policy signals risk making it harder to secure investment.
“That could slow progress, confuse consumers and make the UK a less attractive place to do business.”
These concerns are shared more widely across the EV sector. Industry leaders including charging providers, energy companies and electric vehicle manufacturers have warned that weakening targets could damage investor confidence and reduce the UK’s competitiveness in the global transition to electric mobility.
Not Everyone Supports Relaxation
Some industry figures argue that demand for EVs is stronger than critics suggest and that weakening the mandate could become a self-inflicted setback.
Thom Groot, CEO of The Electric Car Scheme, said: “Diluting the ZEV mandate would be a catastrophic own goal. Consumer demand for EVs is growing, proof that the appetite is absolutely there. Through salary sacrifice alone, we’ve seen demand for new EVs double in the past year.
“We would like to see the Government channel the momentum already gained into focusing on innovations and incentives that make EVs more accessible.”
Others point to evidence that the UK has continued to meet mandate requirements through existing flexibilities, while electric vehicle market share has continued to grow. Supporters of the current framework argue that regulatory certainty is precisely what has driven investment and innovation over the past two years.
The Real Challenge: Turning Ambition into Adoption
Regardless of where stakeholders stand on target revisions, there is broad agreement that electrification ultimately depends on practical delivery rather than regulation alone.
Russell Olive, UK Director at vaylens, said: “Adjusting the ZEV mandate won’t remove the practical challenges businesses face when trying to electrify their vehicles.
“Policy can influence the pace of change, but successful electrification still depends on practical planning, better data and infrastructure that aligns with how vehicles are actually used.”
The Government’s review therefore raises a bigger question than whether targets should be adjusted. The central challenge is creating a coherent policy framework where vehicle supply, consumer incentives, charging infrastructure, taxation and industrial strategy work together.
The automotive sector remains committed to electrification. What many industry leaders are now demanding is not necessarily less ambition, but greater consistency. Whether ministers choose to relax the mandate or maintain existing targets, the success of the UK’s EV transition may ultimately depend less on the numbers themselves and more on providing the long-term certainty that consumers, manufacturers and investors need to plan with confidence.
As the debate intensifies, one message is becoming increasingly clear: policy coherence, not policy volatility, will determine whether the UK remains a leader in the transition to zero-emission transport.
Mark Salisbury, Editor
